6
Don't Miss Out
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
74%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |