7
Elle's Dancer
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/03/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 23/04/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/05/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 01/03/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |