3
Plume
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 46
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |