9
Sarissa
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/10/2024 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 17/01/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 28/02/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 28/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 02/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |