6
Coyote Kiss
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 68
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA76 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA68 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |