3
Lb Favorite Delight
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA55 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 13th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |