10
One Grand Eagle
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-06-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA62 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |