4
Philomina
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 67
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 11th | −3 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |