7
Runaway Deluxe
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 68
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA65 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-05-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2024 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 14/11/2024 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 22/04/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/05/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |