12
Luca Brillante
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 81
Naas · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden · 5f 205y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA78 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 21100% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -11.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |