4
Bold Commander
2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 80
Naas · Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden · 5f 205y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA81 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -9.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |