10
Our Boy Bailey
2yo Gelding · 9-5
Naas · Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden · 5f 205y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 11th | 2nd | +7 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -56.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 17/06/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 14% | -0.71 |