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12

Ballymackney

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 51

Naas · Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shown little in 4 starts, including in first-time headgear on nursery bow at Down Royal (7f, good) earlier in the month. Quickly back sprinting and needs to up her game.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f Sft 1223/05C8C8 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 5f3y Gd 1222/07C8C8 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 12323/07C8BHA54 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 54 · 7f27y Goo 123 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 54 par4/0954OR 54projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA548th8th0
2026-07-23Leopardstown?11th11th0
2026-07-02Bellewstown?9th9th0
2026-05-03Cork?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/052/0723/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20267th16/116%33%+0.18
02/07/20269th12/137%0%-0.37
23/07/202611th150/10%9%+0.09
04/09/20268th12/137%22%-0.15