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4

Invincible Irish

2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 61

Naas · Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shown little at long odds on all 3 starts, including in a first-time hood earlier in the month. Makes nursery debut with the headgear quickly discarded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 10.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f GF 13319/07C8C8 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR - · 5f Goo 13314/08C8C8 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 1264/09C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down Royal?7th7th0
2026-08-14Cork?13th13th0
2026-07-19Curragh?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0714/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +20.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/202611th150/10%0%0.00
14/08/202613th400/10%20%+0.20
04/09/20267th50/10%40%+0.40