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6

Lily Bear

2yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 59

Naas · Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finished runner-up in a barrier trial but soundly beaten all 3 starts, out of her depth in a valuable sales race at this track (6f, good) early last month. Makes nursery bow in a reapplied hood and the booking of Colin Keane catches the eye.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 9.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f35y Sft 12911/06C8C8 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 12523/07C8C5 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f205y Goo 1233/08C5projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Naas?11th11th0
2026-07-23Leopardstown?10th10th0
2026-06-11Leopardstown?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0623/073/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength51%

Delivery trend +33.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/06/20267th7/282%14%-0.67
23/07/202610th22/10%18%+0.18
03/08/202611th150/10%0%0.00