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7

Little Diva

2yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 56

Naas · Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap · 5f

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Failed to build on the minor promise she showed on her qualifying run when sixth of 8 on nursery debut at Navan (6f, good) 3 weeks ago. Handicapper drops her 3 lb and it's too soon to be writing her off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f3y Gd 1283/07C8C8 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f110y Goo 12116/07C8C8 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 6f Goo 12316/08C8BHA59 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f180y Goo 119 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 59 par27/0859OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA596th6th0
2026-08-16Curragh?10th10th0
2026-07-16Leopardstown?9th9th0
2026-07-03Bellewstown?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0716/0716/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/07/20265th80/10%43%+0.43
16/07/20269th100/10%20%+0.20
16/08/202610th200/10%47%+0.47
27/08/20266th20/10%29%+0.29