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2

New Mexico

2yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 65

Naas · Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap · 5f

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

105,000 gns purchase who looks limited on early evidence, failing to have the pace to make the most of the plum draw when seventh of 8 in maiden at Bellewstown (5f, good) back in early-July. Needs this switch to a nursery to prove transformative.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f Sft 1333/04C8C8 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f Sft 13319/04C8C8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f3y Gd 1333/07C8projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Bellewstown?7th7th0
2026-04-19Curragh?6th6th0
2026-04-03Curragh?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0419/043/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength43%

Delivery trend -14.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
19/04/20266th50/10%17%+0.17
03/07/20267th22/10%14%+0.14