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14

Santo Parvenue

2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 47

Naas · Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looks limited on early evidence, seventh of 9 in maiden at Bellewstown (5f, good) when last seen 11 weeks ago. Blinkers on for this nursery bow and needs a lot more improvement. 4 lb out of weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f Sft 1333/04C8C8 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f Sft 1253/05C8C8 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 5f3y Gd 1252/07C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Bellewstown?7th7th0
2026-05-03Cork?4th4th0
2026-04-03Curragh?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/043/052/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -39.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/20264th40/10%57%+0.57
03/05/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
02/07/20267th10/147%25%-0.22