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2

Santerno

2yo Colt · 9-8

Naas · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Claiming Maiden · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off 4 months but took a step forward with ninth of 19 in strong maiden at the Curragh (6f, good to firm) 39 days ago. Tongue strap goes on for first time. In excellent hands and a player here with better to come.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f Sft 13319/04C8C8 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR - · 6f Goo 1339/08C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Curragh?9th10th−1
2026-04-19Curragh?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/049/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +85.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20265th7/163%33%-0.30
09/08/20269th33/10%56%+0.56