IvyArcIvyArc
3

Maggie Walker

2yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 68

Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m 0f 0y

#1

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f Sft 12019/05C81 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 6f GF 12827/061BHA69 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 69 · 1m30y Gd 127 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 69 par21/0869OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA692nd2nd0
2026-06-27Curragh16th6th0
2026-05-19Cork?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0527/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 10-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -25.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
27/06/20266th50/10%0%0.00
21/08/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01