4
Old Joanie
2yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 68
Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m 0f 0y
#2
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA69 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 3-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |