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6

Armarone's Girl

2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 66

Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Decent sixth of 12 on debut at Leopardstown but backwards steps both starts since. Opposable on nursery bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 10.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 12723/07C8C8 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 12723/08C8C8 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sft 1278/09C8projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Galway?11th11th0
2026-08-23Naas?14th14th0
2026-07-23Leopardstown?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0723/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -22.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20266th66/10%55%+0.55
23/08/202614th150/10%13%+0.13
08/09/202611th80/10%9%+0.09