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5

Cromane

2yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 67

Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Territories filly looked a longer-term prospect when mid-field in maidens at Cork and Galway. Always behind at the Curragh (6f) last month and now steps up in trip for nursery debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f Sft 13019/05C8C8 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 7f Yie 12531/07C8C8 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR - · 6f Goo 12516/08C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Curragh?15th15th0
2026-07-31Galway?7th7th0
2026-05-19Cork?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0531/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +19.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20265th11/271%50%-0.21
31/07/20267th16/116%57%+0.41
16/08/202615th20/10%18%+0.18