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Golden Arizona

2yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 72

Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has seemingly been brought along with nurseries in mind, never nearer when fifth of 13 in maiden at Down Royal (7f, soft) 90 days ago. Gelded during his absence and steps into this company sporting a first-time tongue strap, though opening mark is perhaps on the stiff side.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1264/05C8C8 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sft 13312/06C8C8 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sft 12619/06C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Down Royal?5th5th0
2026-06-12Gowran Park?4th4th0
2026-05-04Curragh?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0512/0619/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%

Delivery trend -10.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/202611th22/10%9%+0.09
12/06/20264th22/10%63%+0.63
19/06/20265th4/179%67%-0.12