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12

Rathbran Lady

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 50

Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed more when fifth of 10 on nursery debut (33/1) at Down Royal (7f, good) 13 days ago. Place claims having been dropped 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f Goo 1259/08C?C8 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 6f Std 12015/08C8C8 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 12827/08C8BHA52 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 52 · 7f27y Goo 121 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 52 par4/0952OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA525th5th0
2026-08-27Navan?7th7th0
2026-08-15Dundalk?10th10th0
2026-08-09Curragh?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0815/0827/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/202612th80/10%15%+0.15
15/08/202610th200/10%31%+0.31
27/08/20267th300/10%14%+0.14
04/09/20265th33/10%56%+0.56