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11

Spanish View

2yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 57

Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Phoenix of Spain filly has offered little in 3 maidens to date. Makes nursery debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 11.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sft 12319/06C8C8 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f Goo 12020/08C8C8 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f27y Goo 1204/09C8projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down Royal?12th12th0
2026-08-20Leopardstown?12th12th0
2026-06-19Down Royal?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0620/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20269th33/10%33%+0.33
20/08/202612th20/10%15%+0.15
04/09/202612th100/10%15%+0.15