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7

Supreme Act

2yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 65

Naas · Care At Home Nursery Handicap · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held all 3 starts in maidens and improvement will need to be forthcoming if he's to make a winning nursery debut from this mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sft 13019/06C8C8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f195y Gd 1273/07C8C8 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 7f Yie 13031/07C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Galway?11th11th0
2026-07-03Bellewstown?7th7th0
2026-06-19Down Royal?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/063/0731/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20268th28/10%42%+0.42
03/07/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
31/07/202611th150/10%29%+0.29