6

Postponing Reality

2yo Gelding · 9-3

Naas · Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lucky Vega gelding who looked one for the longer term when eighth of 14 in maiden at Down Royal (7f, good) on debut just under a fortnight ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f27y Goo 1354/09C8
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down Royal?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 6-11 · 50%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength52%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20268th12/137%46%+0.09