Alpha Magic
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70
Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 8.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 21th | 20th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 3 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 3 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-07-21 | Ayr | 3 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 17/05/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/07/2025 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 15/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 24/07/2026 | 21st | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |