3
Bloodsweatandtyres
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70
Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 8.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 1 | 10th | 5th | +4 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 22th | 21th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/05/2026 | 22nd | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/06/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/08/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |