IvyArcIvyArc
2

Fiscal Policy

7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70

Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to winning ways over C&D in June and arrives in good nick, racing wide when fifth of 8 in handicap at Thirsk (7f, good to soft) 12 days ago. Also took this in 2024 so needs considering from an easing mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 70 · 5f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 70 par21/055OR 705 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 69 par19/065OR 694 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 75 par11/074OR 754 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 74 · 6f GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 74 par7/084OR 743 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 72 · 6f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 71 par5/094OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk45th4th+1
2026-08-16Pontefract33rd1st+2
2026-08-07Newmarket46th5th+1
2026-07-24York411th10th+1
2026-07-11York417th16th+1
2026-06-25Newmarket42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0525/067/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20265th11/271%33%-0.38
08/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
19/06/20263rd10/382%87%+0.04
25/06/20262nd7/491%75%-0.16
11/07/202617th22/10%11%+0.11
24/07/202611th25/10%50%+0.50
07/08/20266th6/168%44%-0.24
16/08/20263rd28/10%75%+0.75
05/09/20265th5/174%43%-0.31