12
Hares Bredth
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 56
Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |