9
Ideal Guest
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 59
Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 09/09/2025 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 08/06/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |