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Ingleby Archie

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70

Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Speedy type who got off the mark for the season at Nottingham in June. Ran one of his lesser races when eighth of 11 in handicap at Redcar (6f, good) 26 days ago so bounce back is needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 76 par27/093OR 764 @ Doncaster 24/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 74 · 6f2y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 74 par5 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 72 · 5f110y Goo 132 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 72 par26/045OR 725 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 5f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 69 · 6f6y Goo 134 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 69 par10/065OR 695 @ Nottingham 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 70 · 6f18y Goo 130 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 72 · 6f6y Goo 140 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 72 par11/075OR 724 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 72 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 71 · 5f217y Goo 136 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 71 par22/085OR 71projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Redcar58th8th0
2026-07-24York45th4th+1
2026-07-11Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-06-20Nottingham51st1st0
2026-06-10Hamilton52nd2nd0
2026-05-21Catterick53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0921/0511/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/202511th18/15%9%+0.04
24/10/202512th25/10%15%+0.15
26/04/20264th15/890%40%-0.50
21/05/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
10/06/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
20/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
11/07/20263rd15/890%50%-0.40
24/07/20265th13/266%80%+0.14
22/08/20268th4/179%30%-0.49