Irish Nectar
5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 67
Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 12/03/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 29/03/2026 | 18th | 12/1 | 37% | 6% | -0.31 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 27/07/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |