8
Uncertainty
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 61
Pontefract · Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 09/09/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |