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5

Ashina

2yo Filly · 9-2

Pontefract · Safe Point Sprint Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

200,000 gns Persian Force filly. Showed more while clearly still in need of the experience when 2¼ lengths third of 8 at Ayr (6f) second time up. Should be capable of better given her price tag and no surprise if she makes it third time lucky.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 6f111y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS6/0624 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 12810/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 2
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-10Ayr43rd3rd0
2026-06-06Doncaster26th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0610/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +87.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20266th9/153%0%-0.53
10/08/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35