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3

Alma Latina

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 78

Pontefract · Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 5y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed early promise when landing 4-runner maiden here (1¼m) in June. Shaped well before failing to handle the track when third on handicap bow at Epsom (1½m) in July but hasn't matched that form in subsequent runs at 1¾m, looking awkward off the bridle at Newmarket latest. Back down in trip now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 24/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m1f209y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS24/0433 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m1f201y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS14/0533 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 1m2f5y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS2/0634 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 82 · 1m4f6y Goo 132 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 82 par1/074OR 823 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 82 · 1m6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 82 par23/073OR 823 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 81 · 1m6f GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 81 par15/083OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Newmarket34th3rd+1
2026-07-23Sandown33rd2nd+1
2026-07-01Epsom Downs43rd3rd0
2026-06-02Pontefract31st0th+1
2026-05-14Salisbury32nd1st+1
2026-04-24Sandown33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0414/052/061/0723/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -28.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78
14/05/20262nd11/1094%90%-0.04
02/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
01/07/20263rd13/891%78%-0.14
23/07/20263rd5/493%0%-0.93
15/08/20264th5/287%25%-0.62