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4

Lightening Company

8yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 71

Pontefract · Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Cashed in off much-reduced marks when landing back-to-back course handicaps in the spring (including over this trip). Mixed bag subsequently but returns to this venue having finished a very good second over hurdles at Cartmel (17f) 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 72 · 1m2f5y Sft 127 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 72 par20/104OR 724 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m2f42y Std 134 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 74 par5 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 73 · 1m2f42y Std 136 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 73 par20/015OR 735 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y Std 130 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 67 · 1m4f5y GS 132 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 67 par7/045OR 675 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 69 · 1m2f5y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 72 · 1m3f188y Gd 122 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 72 par13/054OR 724 @ Cartmel 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 104 · 2m1f46y Gd 167 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 104 par3 @ Cartmel 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 102 · 2m1f46y Goo 145 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 102 par29/083OR 102projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Cartmel32nd1st+1
2026-06-26Cartmel45th5th0
2026-05-13York48th8th0
2026-04-29Pontefract51st2nd−1
2026-04-07Pontefract51st2nd−1
2026-03-05Newcastle510th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/105/0313/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20252nd40/10%91%+0.91
27/11/202510th66/10%0%0.00
20/01/202610th66/10%10%+0.10
05/03/202610th80/10%0%0.00
07/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
29/04/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
13/05/20268th33/10%56%+0.56
26/06/20265th11/271%50%-0.21
29/08/20262nd20/10%90%+0.90