2
Morbeh
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 85
Pontefract · Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 5y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 13/09/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 08/12/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 64% | -0.22 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 85/40 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |