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Sea Lantern

4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 85

Pontefract · Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 5y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on second of 2 starts in Irish maidens last summer and further progress starting out for new yard/after 8 months off when third over an inadequate 1¼m in April. That form has been well advertised since and very interesting with potential for better still in handicaps back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 19/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m4f46y Gd 13419/08C8C8 @ Roscommon 01/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 1m4f17y Sft 1341/09C83 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 87 · 1m2f5y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 87 par29/043OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-29Pontefract33rd2nd+1
2025-09-01Roscommon?1st6th−4
2025-08-19Roscommon?3rd8th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/081/0929/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/08/20253rd12/137%71%+0.35
01/09/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
29/04/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44