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3yo Filly · 9-2

Pontefract · Nadeen Dawson Memorial Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 6y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well-bred daughter of Too Darn Hot. Didn't offer much on debut prior to being pulled up (lost action) at Newbury last July. A 14-month absence would typically be a concern but she's in excellent hands. Needs a close look for yard with 61% strike rate in novice/maiden races here in past 5 seasons.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS12/073
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-07-24Newbury40
2025-07-12Newmarket37th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 5-10 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20257th10/147%14%-0.33