7
River Nile
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 74
Pontefract · Nadeen Dawson Memorial Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 6y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength62%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sandown | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |