5
Billyb
7yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80
Pontefract · Matty Bown Handicap · 1m 6y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 13/06/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |