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7

Capital Guarantee

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 78

Pontefract · Matty Bown Handicap · 1m 6y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned to winning ways at Thirsk (1m) in July. Not proving easy to catch right since but one of better efforts when third of 8 there (7f, good to soft) 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 7f96y Goo 134 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 79 par23/044OR 793 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 81 · 7f218y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 80 · 7f96y Goo 130 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 80 par30/054OR 804 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 79 · 1m177y Goo 129 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f96y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 77 par4/074OR 775 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 7f218y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 79 · 7f219y Goo 141 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 79 par8/084OR 794 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 136 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 78 par5/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk43rd3rd0
2026-08-15Ripon46th6th0
2026-08-08Redcar46th6th0
2026-07-16Thirsk51st2nd−1
2026-07-04Beverley46th6th0
2026-06-13York414th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0413/068/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
16/05/202612th12/137%8%-0.29
30/05/20269th18/15%20%+0.15
13/06/202614th80/10%13%+0.13
04/07/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
16/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
08/08/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
15/08/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
05/09/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08