10
Garden Oasis
11yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 68
Pontefract · Matty Bown Handicap · 1m 6y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |