3
Hale End
6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80
Pontefract · Matty Bown Handicap · 1m 6y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 90% | -0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |