9
Venetian Lion
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 76
Pontefract · Matty Bown Handicap · 1m 6y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Yarmouth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 25/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.09 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |