8
Zowal
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76
Pontefract · Matty Bown Handicap · 1m 6y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 4 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2025 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 19/04/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 11/07/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/11/2025 | 17th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/07/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |