IvyArcIvyArc
1

An Bradan Feasa

6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 73

Pontefract · Donate To New Beginnings Horses At nbhorses.org.uk Handicap · 2m 1f 27y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

34%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful 4 times on turf/all-weather last year and has gone close on several occasions this season, latterly when just touched off over 2m at Newmarket in August. Failed to replicate that when fourth at Kempton latest but no surprise to see him bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 71 · 1m4f14y Std 136 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 71 par3/115OR 715 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 70 · 2m Std 142 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m7f169y Std 138 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 72 par12/055OR 724 @ Fakenham 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 116 · 2m3y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 116 par5 @ Lingfield 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 72 · 2m68y Goo 135 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 72 par18/065OR 724 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 115 · 1m7f168y Gd 165 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 115 par5 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 73 · 2m68y Goo 140 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 73 par1/085OR 735 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 73 · 2m GF 138 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 74 · 1m7f218y Sta 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 74 par5/094OR 74projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton44th3rd+1
2026-08-14Newmarket52nd2nd0
2026-08-01Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-07-15Uttoxeter43rd2nd+1
2026-06-18Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-05-31Fakenham43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1131/051/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/11/20254th9/153%75%+0.22
27/11/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
12/05/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
31/05/20263rd11/486%33%-0.52
18/06/20262nd13/891%75%-0.16
15/07/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
01/08/20262nd3/184%50%-0.34
14/08/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
05/09/20264th4/179%40%-0.39